Topic 2:
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End states are formulated at the political level, and developed with input from military, NGOs, host nation (if in existence), regional organizations and neighbouring countries. The military mission flows from the political mandate. In principle, the host nation should be involved from the outset. In reality, involvement is dependent upon the situation. The critical factors which need to be in place for the transition from the mission, whether under the control of the UN or multinational force, to local control are the provision of basic needs, observance of human rights, resumption of individual rights such as the freedom of movement and access to education, a functioning political process, the basis for a self-sustaining local economy, acceptance and observance of the rule of law, a secure environment and a stable social environment, as evidenced by the return of IDPs and refugees. The military’s primary task in peace operations is in the establishment and maintenance of security, defined as a safe and secure environment. Law and order is one aspect of security. The military may have to participate in the establishment and maintenance of law and order. Other capabilities beyond the primary task, including the extent of their role in the establishment of law and order, must be carefully debated. Relief activities, including those nation-building activities to win hearts and minds, are not typical activities for the military. These are programmed activities that should be provided at the request of a civil agency, preferably by the appropriate humanitarian agencies. Emergency military assistance may have to be used when civil agencies are not able to handle “one-time” emergencies. Sectors in which the military may be able to provide emergency assistance are transportation, medical or civilian threat evacuation, emergency security force supplies, and communications. When examining transitions, there are major transitions that may take place within a complex contingency operation: the transition from a multinational force to a UN force, and the transition from an international mission (either MNF, UN or both) to local governance. Also, recent events have shown that transitions should not be limited by situations set forth by the mandate as time may rapidly overcome events on the ground. In addition, the definition of “sustainable security” should be set forth in the mandate and determined by the SRSG, whenever possible. It should be noted that the lack of a readily available mission force headquarters and force slows the ability for a coalition or alliance to transition to a UN operation. In addition, the UN process can inhibit the ability to transition an operation or change the mandate of an existing UN mission. The transition process is cyclic and should be driven by information from the field. Information from the field should provides the indicators to the policy level, and, meeting the critical factors, the policy level then provides guidance and decisions for the transitions to take place. Knowing when the factors have been met requires the establishment of formal and informal measures of effectiveness across all disciplines and at all levels. The interdependence and relationships between these measures of effectiveness must be understood and accounted for. Constant and detailed examination of the process of developing, collecting and analyzing measures of effectiveness must take place at all levels. A clear and well-defined end state is absolutely necessary for the development of achievable and realistic transitions. Transitions should be event driven and/or time driven. A mission can follow many different paths to success. The existing political situation, both internationally and internally, will determine the path the military takes and what transitions are necessary. There are several types of military transitions, including transitions of form (coalition, alliance, UN, etc.), transitions to new capabilities, transitions to meet a change in the stated mission, transitions to a smaller or larger force, and finally withdrawal. Military transitions are not accomplished in isolation. Sectoral transitions are linked and are dependent upon each other. Coordinated interagency and multinational planning and execution is critical. Rapid response is necessary for prompt and smooth transitions There are several triggers for transitions, which singly or in tandem with others may bring about a transition. They include SRSG reports, Security Council actions, existing peace agreements and any amendments to them. As already discussed, measures of effectiveness, if properly developed and integrated, can be critical indicators of changes in the social, political, security and economic environments, and can also serve as triggers for transitions, but differ from those mentioned earlier in that they are often bottom driven, that is, transitions that result from changes that are occurring on the ground at the micro level, rather than from the top down. Formal and informal measures of effectiveness must be established across all disciplines and the interdependence and relationships between these measures must be understood and accounted for. Phasing should also be used judiciously and with the realization that different sectors, both functional and geographic, may be in different phases based on the circumstances of the situation and operations. Once the decision for a transition has been made, adequate time must be allocated for the operation to be planned and executed, especially when the transition, or details of the transition, were not part of the existing plan. II. Improving Military Management of New and Evolving Tasks Related to Transitions There are several measures the military can undertake to improve its ability to meet new and evolving tasks that are directly related to successful transitions:
There is a need for:
What advice would you give your government if you were asked to go to Iraq tomorrow?
The diagram above serves to illustrate the timing of the entrance and exit of various actors before, during and after a major political crisis, particularly one where violence and conflict which has disrupted the normal functioning of civil society. The purpose of the diagram is to show:
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A discussion of transitions proceeds hand-in-hand with a discussion of end states, as transitions often represent end states for one or more of the actors, or major changes to force composition, structure, etc. Therefore, it is important to consider who determines end states and transitions, and the critical factors which trigger transitions.